Angolan economy benefits from its low external debt, its position as one of the leading oil producers in Africa, reduced political uncertainty post favourable election results, growing forex reserves, improving institutional infrastructure after starting a sovereign wealth fund in Oct 2012, and intact regional growth story. These strengths are somewhat offset by exposure of the economy to the volatile oil industry, persistent double digital inflation, and lingering political uncertainties owing to a short history of political stability post the civil war concluded in 2002.
It is rated as Ba3 and BB- by Moody's and Fitch respectively. Both Moody's and Fitch have upgraded outlook on the government of Angola to positive from stable in 2012. The economy of Angola has performed well post these upgrades. The Angola government is a possible candidate for a rating upgrade in the near to medium term if the government continues to display strong macroeconomic fundamentals and produces a successful track record of its newly established sovereign wealth fund.
Angola has manageable level of external public debt. IMF expects Angola's external debt as a percentage of GDP to be 19.5% and 20.4% for 2012 and 2013 respectively. The economy of Angola is primarily dependent on oil. After facing challenging fiscal environment in 2009 owing to the lower oil prices and weak demand, the economy has bounced back considerably in the past few years. Fiscal revenues are expected to more than cover the fiscal expenses in the coming years. The consistent fiscal Datenrettung Berlin surplus position has reduced the government's need of external borrowings. We expect Angola's dependence on external borrowings to remain limited in the near to medium term.
The economy of Angola has witnessed a strong GDP growth in the recent year thanks to the favourable oil price environment. The prospects for the economic growth remain buoyant in the near future. As per IMF, the real GDP of Angola is expected to grow at 5.0% in 2013.
Angola is the second largest oil producer in the Sub Saharan Africa based on 2012 oil production of about 1.8 mn barrels of oil per day. The oil exports have been robust and have helped the government to accumulate sizeable revenues. Angola is predominantly an oil story and therefore higher oil exports have translated into higher government revenues. Angola's strong presence in the oil industry provides it with an access to regular cash flows.
President Dos Santos has been in power since 1979 in Angola. He comfortably won the latest presidential election, which concluded in Sept 2012. This has significantly alleviated the political risk pertaining to the presidential succession in Angola. With election uncertainty behind the nation, Angola seems like a stable place for bond investors.
The government of Angola has successfully set up a sovereign wealth fund, The Fundo Soberano de Angola (FSDEA), in Oct 2012. The fund started with initial capital of USD5.0 bn and would receive USD3.5 bn in additional capital from oil proceeds every year. This fund is mandated to invest in financial instruments as well as key infrastructure and hospitality projects in Sub-Saharan Africa. The set up of a sovereign wealth fund shows the government's strong commitment in diversifying its economy away from the oil industry as well as improving transparency in relation to the sources and uses of national wealth.
Oil revenue has been the bread and butter of the Angolan economy. Oil industry contributes more than 60% of the GDP, more than 97% of exports, and about 80% of the government revenues. However, the oil revenues are susceptible to production disruptions as well oil price fluctuations. The sudden fall in the oil price could significantly impact the fiscal and external balances of the economy. Although, the government has started to diversify its economy away from the oil industry, it is still in early stages of diversification.